By Nelson Rand and Vincent MacIsaac

PHNOM PENH - Cambodia's opposition members of parliament began trickling back into the country from Thailand over the weekend after a tense week in which the region's longest-serving leader was sworn into office once again, ending a year-long battle in which his opponents failed to oust him.

"Prime Minister Hun Sen's in total control," said Cambodia scholar Margaret Slocomb, predicting he would stay in power "for as long as his health allows him".

"There's no one who can poke a stick at him," said Slocomb, author of The People's Republic of Kampuchea 1979-89; The Revolution After Pol Pot. "He controls the army, the police, all forms of security ... everyone who has a gun," she added. "He's an incredibly astute politician."

Following the new government's swearing-in ceremony on Friday, Hun Sen indicated that the coalition produced by a year of intrigue, melodrama, back-stabbing, alleged bribery and trade-offs was not as haphazard as many observers suggested.

Cambodia has been without a government since the July 2003 general election in which Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) fell nine seats short of the two-thirds majority required in the 123-seat National Assembly to form its own government. The 11-month political deadlock ended in June when the CPP and the royalist Funcinpec Party agreed to form a new coalition.

Hun Sen sees it lasting up to 30 years. "We must have a coalition government at least 20 to 30 years more," he told reporters after the ceremony, which was boycotted by the opposition.

Opposition leader Sam Rainsy, who fled to Thailand on Wednesday with his MPs and remains out of the country, denounced the new government as "illegal"and accused Hun Sen of turning Cambodia's "fledging democracy into a dictatorship and mafia state".

"Now, Mr Hun Sen can do whatever he wants," said Phnom Penh resident Sanitha Chay, echoing a view that was ubiquitous on the country's most popular talk radio channel, Radio Beehive, last week.

It was a week of political maneuverings that on Tuesday threatened to erupt into a crisis, when police surrounded the house of Hun Sen's main rival in the CPP, Senate president and acting head of state Chea Sim, setting off rumors he had been put under house arrest for refusing to sign controversial legislation to allow the new government to be formed.

Later that day, Chea Sim was escorted by national police director General Hok Lundy, a close ally of Hun Sen, to Bangkok, and Chea Sim's replacement as the king's representative, Nhiek Bun Chhay, quickly signed the legislation, known as the "Additional Constitution".

As the events unfolded, Sam Rainsy made "an urgent appeal to the international community ... to condemn in no uncertain terms the threat and intimidation targeted at Samdech Chea Sim, the acting head of state of Cambodia".

Adding to the rumor-fueled tension in the capital was a power outage that effectively shut down Phnom Penh on Tuesday afternoon. But the violence that has accompanied political crises in the past did not occur, and Hun Sen was quick to point this out after Friday's swearing-in ceremony at the royal palace.

"After a deadlock of more than 11 months we did not slip into a culture of violence, like other countries have when they only have a deadlock of one or two weeks," he told reporters.

The mood in the capital, however, was less sanguine; the opposition party was in Thailand, and doubts about the legality of the government's formation had been compounded by Chea Sim's unscheduled departure.

Endorsing the 'Additional Constitution'
King Sihanouk, who is in self-exile in North Korea, had refused to sign the so-called "Additional Constitution", an amendment to the constitution that basically ensured Hun Sen would remain prime minister and Funcinpec Party president Norodom Ranariddh would be elected as chairman of the National Assembly. In a letter on July 10, King Sihanouk instructed Chea Sim to let his conscience decide whether he should endorse it.

The legislation has been widely criticized as unconstitutional because it allowed MPs to appoint politicians to positions in the National Assembly and executive branch simultaneously in one "package vote", instead of by separate votes as required by the constitution.

Analysts say Hun Sen insisted on this measure to ensure that his coalition partner, the Funcinpec Party, as well as all members of his own party, would have to support him as prime minister if they wanted a government.

Shift in Cambodian politics
Chea Sim's exit has been seen as proof of a schism in the famously monolithic CPP, which celebrated its 53rd anniversary on June 28. Slocomb said Chea Sim's exit signified a critical shift in Cambodian politics.

"Hun Sen has asserted his power over his own party," she said, adding that Hun Sen had been gradually strengthening his position in the party since the last election, on July 27, 2003.

Last Tuesday, Hun Sen showed he could force the party president to do his bidding, Slocomb said. "It was like a child slapping his father across the face," she added.

Opposition members have accused Hun Sen of staging a "double coup", against his own party and against the Cambodian people. "Cambodia took a u-turn toward dictatorship," opposition spokesman Ung Bun Ang said.

In addition to Chea Sim's departure, there are also concerns about the size of the new cabinet, the largest in Cambodian history. The power-sharing deal between Hun Sen and the Funcinpec Party led to the creation of an additional 180 ministerial positions, including five additional deputy prime ministers and scores of new secretaries of state in each of the country's 27 ministries.

According to analysts, this was done to appease members of both parties, offering them lucrative government positions for their support.

"The deal has been reached at the expense of the Cambodian taxpayer. This country can't afford that kind of burden," Lao Mong Hay, a political scientist at the Center for Social Development, told the Cambodia Daily.

"This could be a disaster economically," Slocomb warned, explaining that Cambodia is already one of the most expensive places to do business in part because of the need to bribe officials. The new government may have extended the line of bribe-takers too far, she said.

Slocomb also warned that Cambodian politics could enter a period of intense polarization, with the country split between the Sam Rainsy Party and the CPP.

The Funcinpec Party was essentially dead, she said. "After the last election [2003], Funcinpec realized it was their last waltz. They have essentially thrown themselves in with the CPP.

"The next election will be very violent," she added.

Ung Bun Ang said last week's developments were a "temporary setback" for his party and for the democracy movement in Cambodia, but added that they were now more determined than ever to "mobilize the democratic forces in the country".

"Now there is a clear-cut line for the Cambodian people to choose - those who violate the constitution or those who respect the rule of law; those who want democracy or those who want dictatorship," he said. "And this will make it easier for the Cambodian people to choose in the next election."

Ung Bun Ang said Sam Rainsy would remain outside of Cambodia for the rest of the month, and maybe longer, traveling to Europe and the United States to rally international support. He was optimistic that the opposition will rebound after last week's setback.

"No matter how powerful Hun Sen is perceived to be, he simply cannot stop the democracy process. He can interrupt it, but he can't stop it in the long run," Ung Bun Ang said.

(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)CPP-Funcinpec coalitions with the same party leaders also ran the two previous governments, since 1993.

After last July's election, Funcinpec vowed not to join a government again led by Hun Sen, the formerly Communist prime minister, accusing him of corruption and autocratic behaviour.

But with its popularity waning, Funcinpec decided to join the coalition because "they just want to have a piece of the pie," said Cambodia scholar Stephen Heder of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

Heder, however, said focusing too much on the unwieldy bureaucracy overlooks a bigger problem - the interconnected network of economic, bureaucratic and military power that has made Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party unbeatable.

"These guys, their friends and their cronies are here to stay. There's no possibility of alternation of power," he said. "So, there's no real democracy in that sense."

Suong Pin, a 39-year-old motorcycle-taxi driver in Phnom Penh who cast his vote in the 2003 election wishing for "something new," admits to disappointment in seeing the same old faces in the new government. But he has not given up hope.

"I will vote again in the new elections in the future until we get good and clean leaders. I believe good will prevail over bad," said Suong Pin, who makes about 4,000 riel ($1.33) a day.