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INSIDE INDOCHINA:Politics Could Stymie Cambodian Reforms

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24-Aug-2005
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A Dow Jones Newswires Column

HANOI (Dow Jones)--The plots and subplots that went into forming Cambodia's new government may have resulted in an administration too weak and divided to make the tough decisions needed to implement Prime Minister Hun Sen's ambitious reform agenda.

Inter-party squabbling and a cabinet swelled by dozens of new positions are bound to make consensus-building increasingly difficult, observers say.

"Cambodia's leaders are more concerned with their power struggle than with (the) growth" the reform agenda is designed to produce, said Chea Vanneth, president of The Centre for Social Development, a local non-governmental organization.

On July 15, almost a year after inconclusive general elections left the country without a working government, the parliament formally approved a new coalition government led by Hun Sen. The new government was formed after his Cambodian People's Party, or CPP, persuaded its rival, the royalist Funcinpec party, to become a partner, partly by creating additional ministerial posts to accommodate it.

The next day Hun Sen outlined a new development plan called the "rectangular strategy" that aims to reform, sometimes radically, Cambodia's legal and administrative systems, its agriculture and military, and the country's place in the global economic community.

"It's an ambitious agenda, but all of these things need to be done" if Cambodia is to grow, said Shayam Vajpai, the Asian Development Bank's country representative.

But with Phnom Penh's senior leaders divided along party lines, Hun Sen will find it hard to convince his coalition partners to back him.

"There's more internal debate than is always obvious externally," said Steven Shomberger, the World Bank's acting country manager in Phnom Penh.

              Did Hun Sen Compromise Too Much?

Under the coalition agreement, the CPP and Funcinpec created new cabinet posts that would give each party representation across ministries. Funcinpec promised to share its spoils with the smaller Sam Rainsy Party, or SRP, its opposition partner in the general elections. But the SRP has since refused to participate in the new government, boycotting the confirmation vote and threatening to stay away from future sessions of parliament.

The vote was conducted on the basis of a controversial constitutional amendment allowing the simultaneous swearing-in of Hun Sen as prime minister and Funcinpec leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh as president of the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. Under the previous rules, Ranariddh would have been sworn in first and then have appointed the prime minister - something analysts say Hun Sen didn't trust him to do.

King Norodom Sihanouk, in self-imposed exile in North Korea, refused to ratify the amendment and threatened to abdicate, leaving acting head of state and CPP president, Chea Sim, to sign. He too apparently refused and was promptly whisked out of the country under armed guard until his deputy acquiesced.

"This lack of trust is very important...(because) to implement reform you need support," said Vanneth at The Centre for Social Development.

The prime minister has been forced into coalition governments before but always has retained the upper hand. While he is still Cambodia's undisputed leader, the time is took to form the new government and the compromises Hun Sen had to make suggest his grip on power may be slipping.

"When you compromise too much, you show your weakness," said Vanneth.

Without a leader able to build support for his plans, the new Cabinet will find it hard to agree on the tough economic and social changes Hun Sen says he is determined to push through.

                    135 Secretaries Of State

In addition to the prime minister, the Cabinet includes seven deputy prime ministers, 15 senior ministers, 28 ministers and 135 secretaries of state.

"Increasing the number of senior posts could complicate (government)," said Shomberger at the World Bank.

Vanneth agrees. Long-entrenched inefficiencies "will get worse," she said.

Vanneth said she worries that the new reform agenda will have to be implemented by "parties that don't talk to each other" in a system in which communication between central and regional governments already is difficult.

"Both 'horizontal' and 'vertical' problems" will result as inter-party fights slow government at every level, she said.

Not everyone is so pessimistic. A few observers said they hope the enlarged cabinet will work in Cambodia's favor.

For one thing, it could raise transparency and public participation in policy making if it increases the number of people with a say in government, said Shomberger.

"The question now is how the government uses its new structure," he said.

And it may be quite some time before there is an answer.

"Everything hasn't settled down," said Shomberger.

Sok Hach, director of the Economic Institute of Cambodia, said "we need at least six months to have an idea" how effective the new government will be.

The ADB's Vajpai takes an even longer-term view. "Two years down the line would be a good time to take stock," he said.

But Cambodia's new parliament can look forward to taking one important step soon.

The country's membership in the World Trade Organization has been on hold since the elections. With only a caretaker government, Phnom Penh couldn't pass the legislation needed to join the global trading body. Now, with lawmakers finally in place, that legislation can be ratified.

WTO membership "is probably the highest item on the agenda (and) we're very hopeful" that parliament can ratify Cambodia's accession to the WTO as soon as September, said Vajpai.