Researchers Warn Water Crisis Looms

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Researchers Warn Water Crisis Looms

Wed Oct 16,12:46 PM ET

By EMILY GERSEMA, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Researchers on Wednesday warned the world will face a crisis if countries continue to mismanage water.

A report by the International Food Policy Institute and International Water Management Institute examined possible scenarios that could affect the future of water supplies, including a "business as usual scenario" that projects water supplies will decrease and consumption increase by 2025 in many countries, based on current patterns. Scientists deemed it the most likely scenario to occur.

"If I were to assign probabilities, I'd probably give that (scenario) about a 60 percent probability and a probability of 20 percent that it will worsen," said Mark W. Rosegrant, a senior research fellow at the food policy institute, discussing the report titled "Averting an Impending Crisis."

Researchers predict that demand for water used in agricultural irrigation will increase in poorer countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America.

"Water scarcity for irrigation will intensify, with actual consumption of irrigated water worldwide expected to grow more slowly than potential consumption, increasing only 4 percent between 1995 to 2025," the report said.

In 1995, the world withdrew 3,906 cubic kilometers of water. The number is expected to increase by 50 percent by 2025, with a small percentage used for irrigation. The fastest growth for demand for irrigation water will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, where countries also have a food shortage, the report said.

In the worst-case scenario, water usage will continue to increase, causing a drop in food production and an increase in food prices.

"The ultimate result of this scenario is growing food insecurity, especially in developing countries," the report said.

Currently, the western United States, northern China and parts of India are experiencing water shortages. The United States, however, is better at managing the problem than the other two countries "because we have more money, more sophisticated irrigation systems in place," Rosegrant said.

Researchers hope China and India are able to manage their problems because they affect the outlook for water supplies, Rosegrant said.

International tension over water scarcity is likely to increase with an impending crisis, he said.

The report concludes that countries need stronger incentives for people to use water more efficiently and suggested that nations should charge more for the resource and invest more in agricultural research to improve water systems.

"You do need to increase significantly the price of water for most users, while subsidizing the poorer users," Rosegrant said.

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On the Net:

International Food Policy Research Institute: http://www.ifpri.org

International Water Management Institute: http://www.cgiar.org/iwmi/